1). The first deadline on the first time homebuyer incentive produced some good and bad results. The good news is that November closings were up 71% compared to November of last year. The average days on market for the closed sales decreased to 91 from 96. The bad news was that buyers decided to take a break from house hunting during November. The number of showings were off 5% and were the lowest number of November showings since 11/03. November showings also broke a streak of 5 consecutive months of higher showings versus the prior years month. Contract pending sales were off 4% compared to 11/08 and 34% compared to 10/09. The average sales price of November closings was $225,900, which was a 2% decrease compared to 11/08 and flat compared to 10/09.
2). Year to date closings are down 12% through the end of November. The tax incentive produced positive results in the lower price points. YTD closings were down 2% in the 0-149.9k price point, down 8% in the 150k-199.9k price point and down 8% in the townhouse segment. Each of the other price points had higher than 12% decreases.
3). There are currently 448 active listings in the four main counties with a short sale or foreclosure designation. This makes up 3.8% of total inventory. There were 1,116 closed sales in the same category during the first 11 months at an average sales price of $143,000 and an average days on market of 63. Closings of distressed housing account for 6.5% of all closing activity. The average sales price of all housing during the first 11 months has been $231,123, so you can see the market for distressed housing has been at the entry level price points.
4). The number of price dropping sellers appears to have bottomed out. The 5,912 price droppers during November reflected a 25% decrease compared to 11/08 and were the lowest amount since June of 2008.
5). While 53% of all price points/geographic areas surveyed have an oversupply of housing, this is the lowest amount since December of last year. There are still 7 price points that have yet to record a closing this year. Each geographic area with housing priced above 600k has an oversupply of housing.
6). Analysis of current year repeat sales indicates prior purchase year impacted the rate of change. Current year sellers with a prior purchase date in 2008 were up 0.98%, those with a prior purchase date in 2007 were down 1.13% per year. Current year sellers with a prior purchase date in 2006 were flat and those with a prior purchase date in 2005 were up 1.38% per year.
7). Based upon the prior 12 months of closings, the current supply of housing in the four main counties is 6 months. That is the lowest amount seen during this year. NAR reports a national current supply of housing at 7 months.
8). Using the most recent 90 day period as a benchmark, Durham County had the best performance among the four. Closings were up 22%, the median sales price was up 0.94% and the median sales price per square foot was up 2.46%. The median days on market dropped to 52 from 62. Johnston County had a 3% increase in closings and the median ppf was flat. Orange County had a 39% increase in closings and a 1% increase in the median ppf. Wake County had a 24% increase in closings and the median days on market decreased to 52.
If you would like specific information on your neighborhood - give me a call or send an email. I would be happy to provide specific information.
